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Six weeks after the CLARITY Act stalled on the Senate floor, Treasury and the CFTC say they’ll build crypto’s rulebook themselves. Nobody voted on that part.

Here’s the timeline the press releases won’t line up for you.

On September 15, the Senate tried to move to the CLARITY Act, the market-structure bill that was supposed to tell the industry once and for all what’s a security, what’s a commodity, and who polices which. It didn’t even get to debate. The cloture vote on the motion to proceed failed 49–50, according to the Senate’s own cloture record. It needed 60. Law firms Orrick and DLA Piper point to two sticking points: ethics rules on officials’ crypto holdings, and whether stablecoins can pay yield. With midterms next week, Orrick calls passage this Congress “widely viewed as unlikely.”

Three weeks later, CFTC Chairman Michael Selig went to a Fordham Law symposium and said the quiet part out loud. “President Trump promised to deliver a crypto asset regulatory market structure with or without legislation,” he said, “and we will help him deliver it using our existing statutory authorities.” The CFTC then opened an advance notice of proposed rulemaking on leveraged retail crypto trading, along with a new exchange category it calls a “crypto asset market.”

This week it was Treasury’s turn. Speaking at Ripple’s Swell conference in New York, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the CLARITY setback disappointing. Bitcoin Magazine reports he said Treasury will “bring the SEC and CFTC together to close the gaps through regulation,” with or without Congress. “At Treasury, we have a lot of convening powers,” he said, and he called the two agencies “great partners.” TokenPost reported the same with-or-without-Congress pledge. Bitcoin Magazine also notes what he left out: no formal plan, no working group, no timeline.

To be fair, a lot of this industry will cheer. Clear rules from an agency beat no rules from a Congress that can’t hold a vote. And Selig himself concedes the limit: only Congress can force every crypto exchange to register federally. The CFTC’s plan is an opt-in.

But step back and look at who’s holding the pen now. It isn’t the 100 people you elected to the Senate. It’s three agencies, run by appointees. The bill was meant to settle the securities-versus-commodities line in statute. Instead, by Selig’s own description, that line is being drawn by him and SEC Chairman Paul Atkins. A rule written that way can be unwritten the same way. Bitcoin Magazine says as much: agency action “can be reversed by a future administration.”

Speculation, labeled: The “with or without Congress” line is useful to people in both parties. Lawmakers skip a hard vote on stablecoin yield and ethics before an election. Agencies get to shape the market without a roll call. If that’s the deal, nobody signed it in public, and nobody will own it if it goes wrong.

Then there’s the money backdrop. On Wednesday the Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.75% to 4% on a 10–2 vote. Per the Fed’s statement, Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented because they wanted a quarter-point hike now. CoinDesk, citing CME FedWatch, put December hike odds at 86% before the decision. After Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference, other FedWatch readings showed low-80s. That’s another unelected body setting the weather crypto trades in.

Speculation, labeled: If rates are heading up while the rulebook is being written by memo, the firms best placed to win are the ones with lawyers in the room when Treasury “convenes.” Bessent made his pitch on a stage at Ripple’s own conference. So for XRP holders, and everyone else, the question isn’t just what the rules say. It’s who was invited to draft them.

So who writes crypto policy now? On the evidence, agencies do. Congress had its shot on September 15 and didn’t take it. The least voters can ask is that every rule the agencies write goes through full public comment, and that they read the comments. Whatever passes for crypto law next year, it shouldn’t be signed in a conference hall.

This is opinion, not investment advice.

Sources: U.S. Senate, Orrick, DLA Piper, CFTC, Bitcoin Magazine, CoinDesk, TokenPost, Federal Reserve, TradingKey.

Opinion. Europe just ran a live experiment on what happens when regulators, not customers, decide which digital dollar you get to use. The result is in, and it should make Americans think.

According to the market data firm Kaiko, Circle’s USDC now handles 56% of stablecoin trading against the euro. In January 2024, it had 10%. Tether’s USDT, the biggest stablecoin on the planet, lost the top spot in Europe.

Did Europeans wake up one morning and decide they liked USDC better? No. Kaiko says the shift came after big exchanges restricted USDT for customers in the European Economic Area to comply with the EU’s crypto law, known as MiCA. Kraken and Binance pulled USDT for EEA clients in March 2025, and USDC’s share jumped from 25% to 46% that month, the biggest single jump in Kaiko’s data.

Outside Europe, Tether is still about 2.5 times bigger than USDC. So this was not the market choosing. This was a rulebook choosing.

Brussels is not done

On Oct. 8, Europe’s securities regulator, ESMA, said EU platforms should stop letting customers buy or swap into stablecoins that lack MiCA approval. People can still sell or withdraw what they hold, but platforms have to wind those holdings down by around early January. Six days later, the European Banking Authority named USDC the EU’s first “significant” e-money token, which puts its reserves under the EBA’s direct watch starting Nov. 12.

To be fair, there is a real argument for rules like these. Regulators want to know what backs a stablecoin and whether people can get their money out. Those are fair questions. But notice how the answer works in practice: one approved company ends up with most of the market, and customers get fewer choices.

Coming soon to a country near you

Kaiko itself says the U.S. is taking a similar approach under the GENIUS Act. The OCC’s first final rule under that law takes effect Jan. 18, 2027. Starting in July 2028, U.S. platforms face limits on offering stablecoins from issuers that don’t meet the law’s approval requirements.

Speculation, labeled: I think Washington is about to run Europe’s experiment on American wallets. The companies with charters, lawyers and friends in the right offices will be on the approved list. Everyone else, including the next upstart that might have built something better, will be fighting to get through the door. Tether has already launched a separate U.S. stablecoin, USAT, which looks like a bet that this is exactly where things are headed.

That isn’t a secret plot. It’s what happens when the gatekeepers write the menu. But “safer” and “more choice” are not the same thing, and nobody asked the customers which one they wanted.

Watch what the exchanges do between now and 2028. If U.S. platforms start trimming their stablecoin lists early, you’ll know the menu is already being written.

This is opinion, not investment advice.

Sources: Cointelegraph, Kaiko, Crypto News Australia, European Securities and Markets Authority, European Banking Authority, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

Opinion. If you came to Ripple’s Swell conference on Tuesday hoping for a moonshot, day one let you down. If you came to see whether Wall Street will actually use Ripple’s rails, it delivered more than the hype accounts will give it credit for.

Start with BNY. The world’s largest custody bank says its digital asset custody platform now holds XRP and Ripple’s dollar stablecoin, RLUSD, for eligible institutional clients. The two firms also say they intend to let BNY clients mint and redeem RLUSD directly through the bank, but that part is a plan, not a live service, and the release marks it that way.

Then Robinhood. It plans to settle institutional trades in RLUSD on the XRP Ledger and to run its own treasury on Ripple Treasury. RLUSD is already live on Robinhood Chain and on Bitstamp by Robinhood. Separately, C2FO plans to settle Instant Pay supplier payments in RLUSD on the XRP Ledger and is taking sign-ups through a waitlist.

None of that is exciting, and that’s the point. Custody, settlement and treasury management are the pipes behind the wall. Nobody throws a party for pipes, but nothing in the building works without them. No deal sizes were disclosed, and nobody on stage made a promise about XRP’s price.

Speculation, labeled: if these pipes work at scale, the boring stuff may matter more for Ripple’s future than any headline price move. A bank that holds your asset, a broker that settles in your stablecoin and a treasury desk running on your software are harder to replace than a rally is to repeat.

Now the part that deserves a second look. American Banker reports that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking with Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse on stage, said dollar-backed stablecoins could become an important source of demand for Treasuries as adoption grows, especially overseas. He didn’t put a number or a date on it.

Speculation, labeled: that tells you why Washington warmed up to stablecoins. It isn’t only about innovation or your freedom to move money. Every dollar stablecoin backed by government debt is another buyer for that debt. That isn’t a conspiracy. The Treasury Secretary said it out loud. But it means the government’s interest and the crypto user’s interest won’t always line up, and holders should remember who benefits when the rules get written.

So judge Swell by what goes live, not what gets applauded. Watch whether BNY’s mint-and-redeem plan actually launches, whether Robinhood’s RLUSD settlement shows real volume, and whether C2FO’s waitlist turns into paid suppliers. The pipes are the story this week. Price can wait.

This is opinion, not investment advice.

Sources: Ripple, BNY (via Business Wire), C2FO, Robinhood, American Banker.

Monday was a big day at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Two moves, same day, and they tell you a lot about who Washington is building this new money system for.

Move one: Ripple got final approval for a national trust bank to hold the reserves behind its dollar stablecoin, RLUSD. A federal charter. A seat at the table.

Move two: the OCC posted on X that community banks are “encouraged to consider applying” to become stablecoin issuers under the GENIUS Act. A suggestion. A to-do list.

One side got a charter. The other side got homework.

Who’s actually inside the gate

Circle got its final trust charter in July. Ripple got its final charter Monday. Coinbase, Crypto.com and Bridge are holding earlier-stage approvals. The OCC’s stablecoin rule doesn’t even take effect until Jan. 18, 2027, and applications under it haven’t opened yet.

So the biggest players are already through the gate while your hometown bank is being told to “consider” starting the paperwork.

And the hometown banks are not cheering. Their trade group, the Independent Community Bankers of America, sued the OCC on Oct. 2. They say these trust charters are “a side door into the banking system” — banks without deposit insurance, under a regulator that, by the ICBA’s count, hasn’t run an uninsured bank receivership in almost 100 years.

The fine print

Here’s what most people scrolling past the headline won’t hear: a national trust bank is not the bank on Main Street. It doesn’t take deposits. It doesn’t make loans. There’s no FDIC sticker on the door.

That doesn’t mean RLUSD is unsafe. Ripple says the reserves are segregated, BNY is the main custodian, and it publishes monthly attestations. Those are real protections. But they are not deposit insurance, and holders should know the difference before anyone sells them “bank-grade” as if it meant “FDIC.”

Speculation, clearly labeled

This part is my opinion, not reported fact. My hunch is that by the time the GENIUS rule switches on in January, the dollar-token market will already have a short list of federally blessed issuers, and the “community bank stablecoin” will mostly mean small banks renting a big issuer’s coin and its plumbing. Washington gets to say it opened the door to everyone. The firms that walked in first get the customers.

Nobody needs a secret plan for that to happen. Being first through a regulator’s door has always been worth more than a press release telling everyone else the door exists.

Crypto was supposed to cut out the gatekeepers. Watch who’s holding the keys now.

Sources: Ripple, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, PYMNTS, Independent Community Bankers of America, Cointelegraph, The Block, Decrypt.